Severe Weather and Flooding Expected in Arkansas Friday

From the National Weather Service in Little Rock….

Severe weather and Flooding are expected today with multiple different waves or storms pushing through the state this morning into the evening. 

• Main threats will be Large Hail (up to 1.75"), Damaging winds (up to 70mph), and Flash Flooding (max 2-3" of rainfall)

 An updated briefing with the latest information is attached. 

• Severe Weather Friday/Heavy Rain Friday Main Threat Summary:

• Friday Morning (Severe) / Excessive Rain Friday ○Damaging Winds: Up to 70 mph ○ Large Hail: Up to Golf Ball (1.75”) ○ Tornadoes: Unlikely ○ Flash flooding where storms train over the same locations (I-30/I-40 corridor and south) Trends/Confidence:

• Severe thunderstorms potential has increased in the last 24 hours

• Expect Severe weather early Friday morning with another round in the afternoon

• Locally heavy rain can not be ruled out over parts of Arkansas Friday morning through the evening

Severe Weather Continues Thursday for Arkansas

• WHAT - Widespread Severe Weather and Excessive Rainfall. ○ Severe weather remains possible Thursday through Saturday across the majority of Arkansas. All modes of severe weather remain possible including a few tornadoes. ○ Extreme rainfall, with an additional 8 to 10 inches possible across parts of the state. This amount of rain is in addition to what has already fallen. Dangerous and potentially life threatening flash flooding and river flooding are expected.

• WHEN - Today through Saturday night. ○ Severe weather threat time frames: ■ (1) Thursday afternoon through Thursday night (all but far northwest and far southeast Arkansas) ■ (3) Friday afternoon through Friday night (all but far northwest and far southeast Arkansas) ■ (4) Saturday afternoon through Saturday night (southeast half of Arkansas) ○ Heavy rainfall and flash/river flooding threat Thursday through Saturday.

• WHERE - Most of the state will be at risk for severe weather and heavy rainfall through Saturday.

Attached is the latest weather briefing concerning this multi day severe weather and flooding event. In a nutshell, a large part of central Arkansas will be under an enhanced risk of severe weather Thursday and Friday with the threat area shifting south for Saturday.  All modes of severe weather will be possible.

Waves of heavy rain will impact the state through Saturday as several waves of low pressure interact with a stalled front. Parts of the state could see up to 10 inches of rain in addition to what fell on Wednesday.

Widespread and significant flash and river flooding are expected.

…….National Weather Service in Little Rock

Severe Weather Threat for Arkansas

• WHAT - Severe weather and heavy rainfall. ○ Very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes will be possible on Wednesday with additional chances of severe weather Thursday through Saturday. . ○ Extremely heavy rainfall, more than 10 inches possible. Dangerous and potentially life threatening flash flooding and river flooding are expected.

• WHEN - Today through Saturday night. ○ Severe weather threat timeframes: (1) Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night (entire state) (2) Thursday afternoon through Thursday night (all but far northwest Arkansas) (3) Friday afternoon through Friday night (all but far northwest and far southeast Arkansas) (4) Saturday afternoon through Saturday night (southeast half of Arkansas) ○ Heavy rainfall and resulting flash/river flooding threat Wednesday through Saturday.

• WHERE - Most of the state will be at risk for severe weather and heavy rainfall.

The latest Severe Weather Briefing from the National Weather Service in Little Rock

• [WHAT] Severe weather and heavy rainfall. ○ Very large hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. ○ Extremely heavy rainfall, more than 10 inches possible. Flash flooding and river flooding likely

• [WHEN] Late Tuesday night through Saturday night. ○ Severe weather threat timeframes: ■ (1) Tuesday night into Wednesday morning (mainly across the far northwest corner) ■ (2) Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night (entire state) ■ (3) Thursday afternoon through Thursday night (all but NW Arkansas) ○ Heavy rainfall and resulting flash/river flooding threat Wednesday through Saturday.

• [WHERE] Most of the state will be at risk for severe weather and heavy rainfall

Severe weather late Tuesday night for Arkansas; heavy rainfall and flash flooding through the remainder of the week

• [WHAT] Severe weather and heavy rainfall

• [WHEN] Late Tuesday night through Saturday night. ○ Severe weather threat late Tuesday night through Thursday. ○ Heavy rainfall and resulting flash/river flooding threat Wednesday through Saturday.

• [WHERE] Most of the state will be at risk for severe weather as well as the heavy rainfall.

National Weather Service Hazardous Weather Briefing

A line of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms is expected to move into western Arkansas Monday night ahead of an advancing cold front. Some of these storms could produce damaging wind gusts, and perhaps an isolated tornado.

Heavy rainfall has already fallen across a good portion of central, western, and northern Arkansas over the last 24-hours. Additional heavy rainfall and severe weather will be possible through Tuesday (election day). Here is an in-depth briefing explaining expected weather conditions through Wednesday morning.

• Widespread rain fell yesterday and overnight leading to flooding across portions of northern Arkansas.

• Additional rainfall is expected today and into Tuesday as a cold front begins to push towards the state.

• An additional one to three inches will be possible through Tuesday

Hazardous Weather Briefing from the National Weather Service in Little Rock

• Heavy rainfall occurred overnight through early Wednesday morning across northern Arkansas which has led to serious flash flooding concerns in some locations

• Estimated rainfall totals above 10 inches have been observed across portions of Searcy, Stone, Marion and Baxter Counties

• Additional rainfall is expected today and tomorrow which could worsen ongoing flash flooding

• Southern Arkansas could see heat index values of 105 or higher this afternoon

• If you have any flash flooding reports, please pass them along to our office when it is convenient

Tropical Storm Beryl Briefing from the National Weather Service

Areas from southwest to north-central Arkansas could see the highest totals (isolated 4-6 inch amounts)

This map shows rainfall totals through Tuesday night, which includes some rainfall expected before Beryl moves through.

• TS Beryl will move onshore along the Texas coast late tonight into early Monday morning, likely as a hurricane.

• Beryl will quickly weaken and move toward the north then northeast, traveling across east/northeast Texas Monday into early Tuesday morning.

• The remnants of Beryl are expected to move across Arkansas from Monday afternoon through Tuesday before lifting northeast of the state by early Wednesday morning.

• The remnants of Beryl could provide some locally heavy rain and perhaps a few tornadoes/damaging wind gusts across Arkansas from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon.

NOTE: Do not focus on the exact track. Impacts can occur well outside the area enclosed by the cone

NWS Severe Weather Outlook for Arkansas June 3, 2024

• A complex of strong to severe thunderstorms will develop along a line that will enter northwestern Arkansas by Monday afternoon and sweep southeastward across the state into Monday evening.

• Damaging wind gusts and quarter sized hail will be possible in any storm that becomes severe.

• The tornado threat in this environment remains very low, but not zero.

• The Flash Flooding threat with this system is low, but locations that saw high rainfall totals with the activity from Thursday and locations that experience efficient rainfall producing cells this afternoon/evening may see flash flooding, especially in prone areas.

Severe Weather Possible Wednesday and Thursday in Arkansas

• An active weather pattern will continue across the region through the weekend, with some threat for strong to severe thunderstorms forecast through the weekend.

• Chances for severe weather will be greatest across the southwest section of the state through tonight. The threat on Thursday will be less concentrated, but may be more focused for western sections. Chances for severe weather will be a tad lower on Friday…but return for Saturday and Sunday.

• The primary threats expected with the strongest storms will be large hail and damaging winds, with some tornadoes also possible. Very large hail over 2 inches in diameter and damaging winds over 70 mph could be seen across southwest sections of the state this Wednesday afternoon.

• Some areas of heavy rainfall could be seen by late this week. Additional rainfall amounts exceeding 1.5 inches could be seen through Memorial Day, especially across the south half of the state. Locally heavier amounts are possible. This may lead to some isolated flash flooding.

Severe Weather Briefing from the NWS in Little Rock

After activity comes to an end this morning, some additional thunderstorms could develop across central into southeast Arkansas this evening into tonight. But, the severe weather threat with this activity remains low.

The greatest risk of severe storms in Arkansas will be on Wednesday during the evening into the overnight hours.

Chances for severe weather will increase Wednesday as a storm system tracks from the southern Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley, and drags a cold front into Arkansas. Ahead of the front, well above average temperatures and humid conditions will create a very unstable environment.

All modes of severe weather are in play. Very large hail up to baseball size and wind gusts up to 80 mph are the main threats, with tornadoes also possible. Heavy downpours may lead to localized flash flooding as well.

Severe Weather Briefing from the National Weather Service

• An unsettled weather pattern will continue today/tonight. Showers and scattered thunderstorms remain in the forecast, and areas of heavy rain are expected.

• The forecast calls for an additional half inch to more than two inches of rain across Arkansas. Spotty flash flooding is possible, and some minor river flooding is likely to occur or is ongoing.

• While the primary concern will be heavy rain, there could be isolated severe storms across southern Arkansas. More significant severe weather is likely farther south along the Gulf Coast (from Louisiana into Mississippi and Alabama).

Weather Outlook for Arkansas on Thursday from the National Weather Service

A storm system will arrive from the Plains on Thursday and bring showers and thunderstorms to Arkansas Thursday into Thursday night.  

Heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and severe weather will be possible for portions of Arkansas beginning Thursday

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms could occur across the western two-thirds of Arkansas Thursday and Thursday night. The main concern will be large hail and damaging winds, however a tornado can not be ruled out. The environment will be most unstable (warm/moist) in the southwest part of the state, and that is where damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes are most favorable.

Severe weather expected in Arkansas Thursday and Friday

• A cold front will sweep across Arkansas Thursday and Friday.

• Showers and storms will develop along and ahead of the front, with potential for strong to severe storms to develop.

• The primary hazards with these storms will be large hail, damaging winds, with heavy rain and localized flash flooding.

• The timing of the development of storms on Thursday will begin early this afternoon across west/northwest AR, with storms continuing to develop along and ahead of the front as it advances east/southeast through early Friday. Rainfall looks to persist through Friday evening across central, south, and eastern portions of the state.

Severe weather risk for the ArkLaTex Friday

Showers and thunderstorms this morning will decrease in coverage before redevelopment later this afternoon. A squall line is then expected to sweep across the state.with the possibility of strong tornadoes with the best chances over the southeast. 

In addition to the severe threat, flooding is a concern. Several inches of rain fell across parts of northwest Arkansas last night with additional widespread rain expected. The precipitation is expected to exit the state late this evening.

Severe Weather expected this afternoon and overnight for the ArkLaTex

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

TORNADO WATCH 57 REMAINS VALID UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN ARKANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS UNION, IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD HOWARD LAFAYETTE NEVADA, IN LOUISIANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 11 PARISHES IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA LINCOLN UNION IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE SOTO NATCHITOCHES RED RIVER SABINE WEBSTER

The National Weather Service in Shreveport has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Little River County in southwestern Arkansas...
  Hempstead County in southwestern Arkansas...
  Northern Miller County in southwestern Arkansas...
  Sevier County in southwestern Arkansas...
  Howard County in southwestern Arkansas...
  Central Bowie County in northeastern Texas...

* Until 1045 PM CST.

* At 943 PM CST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near De Queen to near Horatio to 6 miles west of
  Richmond to 6 miles south of New Boston, moving east at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated. Numerous trees and power lines have been
           downed with these storms across McCurtain County
           Oklahoma. Roof damage has been reported as well.

  IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to
           mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

* Locations impacted include...
  Texarkana, De Queen, Wake Village, Ashdown, Nashville, New Boston,
  Mineral Springs, Dierks, Horatio, Foreman, Umpire, Nash, Hooks,
  Redwater, Red Lick, Lockesburg, Wilton, Blevins, Tollette and
  Fulton.

A Moderate Risk (red) and an Enhanced Risk (orange) remains in place across the region for today and tonight. All modes of severe weather will be possible (tornadoes, hail, wind). Remember, NOW is the time to prepare, don't wait for warnings to be issued before taking action!

Severe weather is likely across the entire region Thursday afternoon, especially in the northwest half of the region, continuing into the overnight hours. The above graphic shows the different tornado, severe hail, and severe wind outlooks. Areas in the significant hatched area have the best chances to see strong EF2 or greater tornadoes, damaging winds of 70-80 mph and hail 2" in diameter or greater.

Areas of prolonged rainfall may result in flooding and flash flooding over the next few days. A Flash Flood Watch will go into effect at 6PM this evening, and remain in effect through Noon Friday.

A Wind Advisory will go into effect at noon today and continue through noon on Friday. South to southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph are expected with gusts up to 45 mph possible.

Weather radar at 8:45 pm Thursday

Go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the Tornado Watch and Flood Watch.

TORNADO WATCH 55 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CST FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN ARKANSAS. COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE: LITTLE RIVER, MILLER, AND SEVIER

...FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... A widespread severe weather outbreak appears to be possible this afternoon and into the evening and overnight hours. There will be two main chances for severe weather. The first will come during the early or mid-afternoon hours when we have the potential for discrete supercells. This would pose a threat of large hail and strong tornadoes. The second round will come along just ahead of an advancing cold front that will push through during the late afternoon and into the evening and overnight hours. The main threat for this round will be damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes. In addition, moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible from training storms, increasing the potential for Flash Flooding.

Thunderstorms will become numerous this afternoon and continue into tonight, with widespread severe weather likely across much of the region. The greatest risk for severe weather will exist along and east of Highway 281 during the day, shifting east of the I-35 corridor during the evening hours. All modes of severe weather will be possible, including large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes.

ACCUWEATHER

Thunderstorms on Thursday will erupt from the afternoon into the nighttime hours from Texas through the Ark-La-Tex region and into the lower Mississippi Valley.

This will be the peak of the severe weather risk this week, with AccuWeather forecasters warning of a rare 'high risk' for severe thunderstorms across parts of northeastern Texas, southeastern Oklahoma, northern Louisiana and a large portion of Arkansas. This threat area includes the cities of Dallas, Little Rock, Arkansas, and Shreveport, Louisiana. Damaging hail, perhaps as large as golf or tennis balls, and a few powerful tornadoes will be possible.

Storm chasers, such as extreme meteorologist Reed Timmer, were gathering in the high-risk area early on Thursday, ahead of the expected formation of tornadoes late in the day.

A much wider part of the country, spanning more than a dozen states and extending from southern Texas to Kentucky, can also experience strong thunderstorms that also could produce damaging wind gusts that bring down trees and power lines, as well as flooding downpours that could imperil motorists.

Heavy Rainfall and Flooding Expected for Arkansas on Tuesday

A heavy rain event is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday in Arkansas, but it appears the amounts will not be quite as heavy as previously thought. 

The forecast calls for three to four inches of rain (instead of four to six inches) from central into southwest Arkansas. Elsewhere across the state, one to three-inch amounts is expected. Given this much rain, there is the potential for flash flooding in places and rises in area rivers.

Click on the pic below for the attached weather briefing PDF from the National Weather Service.

Severe Weather/Heavy Rain Briefing from the National Weather Service

Click on pic above for NWS Weather Briefing 03/21/22 PDF

National Weather Service Excessive Rainfall Briefing for SW Arkansas

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Shreveport has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of Arkansas...northwest Louisiana...
  southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas, including the following
  areas, in Arkansas, Columbia, Hempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little
  River, Miller, Nevada, Sevier and Union. In northwest Louisiana,
  Bossier, Caddo, Claiborne and Webster. In southeast Oklahoma,
  McCurtain. In northeast Texas, Bowie, Camp, Cass, Cherokee,
  Franklin, Gregg, Harrison, Marion, Morris, Panola, Red River,
  Rusk, Smith, Titus, Upshur and Wood.

* From 7 AM CDT this morning through Tuesday morning

* Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches, with isolated higher amounts
  possible. Rain amounts may occur in a short period of time and may
  impact locations that have seen heavy rainfall over the last few
  days.

* Flooding may occur in urban and poor drainage areas.  Heavy
  rainfall may also cause flooding of creeks, streams, and rivers.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to
Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation. You
should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should
Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

We are expecting an active day across the state regarding heavy rainfall and flash flooding potential. With the morning forecast package, the Weather Prediction Center introduced a Moderate risk of excessive rainfall for much of southwest and central Arkansas. The potential 2 to 3 inches of rain over the risk area with some locally greater amounts coupled with antecedent heavy rainfall the last few days has led to a compromised soil surface and increased flash flooding vulnerability. Please see the attached briefing for more in depth information regarding flash flooding potential over the next few days.

Severe Weather Possible Across Arkansas Overnight Thursday into Friday Morning

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas. .

Today and Tonight... By tonight, locally heavy rainfall from widespread showers and thunderstorms can produce isolated flash flooding, especially along the U.S. Highway 82 corridor in northeast Texas and southwest Arkansas. .

Friday through Wednesday... Showers and thunderstorms will return across the region Thursday night and into Friday morning. This activity will be associated with a squall line, and some of these storms can be strong to severe, particularly north of I-20. Damaging winds will be the primary threat with this activity.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio operators...and storm spotters may be needed for Thursday night. Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.