Severe Weather and Flooding Expected in Arkansas Friday

From the National Weather Service in Little Rock….

Severe weather and Flooding are expected today with multiple different waves or storms pushing through the state this morning into the evening. 

• Main threats will be Large Hail (up to 1.75"), Damaging winds (up to 70mph), and Flash Flooding (max 2-3" of rainfall)

 An updated briefing with the latest information is attached. 

• Severe Weather Friday/Heavy Rain Friday Main Threat Summary:

• Friday Morning (Severe) / Excessive Rain Friday ○Damaging Winds: Up to 70 mph ○ Large Hail: Up to Golf Ball (1.75”) ○ Tornadoes: Unlikely ○ Flash flooding where storms train over the same locations (I-30/I-40 corridor and south) Trends/Confidence:

• Severe thunderstorms potential has increased in the last 24 hours

• Expect Severe weather early Friday morning with another round in the afternoon

• Locally heavy rain can not be ruled out over parts of Arkansas Friday morning through the evening

Severe weather (4/4) and continued heavy rainfall expected for much of Arkansas Friday - NWS/NOAA

The threat for severe weather continues for this Friday into Friday night. All modes of severe weather will be possible including very large hail, damaging winds and even a few tornadoes.

Specifics About Hazards (If Any): A warm front will lift northward into Arkansas today, eventually stalling out once again across the north-central and west-central sections of the state. Conditions along and south of the front will become very unstable by this afternoon as temperatures warm into the 80s. All modes of severe weather will be possible, including damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes. A few long- track tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

There is a high risk for excessive rainfall today into tonight for a large portion of the state. Several inches of rainfall are possible, which may lead to flash and river flooding.

Thunderstorms will remain likely on Saturday into Saturday night, with strong to severe weather potential remaining. All modes of severe weather will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening, including large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. The highest threat for severe weather on Saturday will be across the southeastern two-thirds of the area.

Areas of heavy rainfall will continue on Saturday into Saturday night as well, with the threat for flash and river flooding continuing to remain a very significant hazard.

Expect the threat for heavy rainfall and severe weather to exit the region by Sunday afternoon. Some areas could see temperatures dropping into the low and mid 30s Sunday and Monday mornings. This may result in some frost or freeze conditions for some areas over northwestern portions of the state. Otherwise, the threat for hazardous weather will become low into the middle of next week.

Several inches of additional rainfall are expected through Sunday morning. Most areas could see an additional 4 to 6 inches, with some areas seeing potentially over 8 inches.

Spotter Activation (Day 1 - Friday/Friday Night): (More Widespread Severe Weather). Scattered to numerous severe storms are expected. The focus area includes much of Arkansas. You can help by monitoring and forwarding severe weather information. If there are strong to severe storms (i.e. wind damage, quarter size hail or larger, etc.) at your location, please consider submitting a report via an online form found here. Thank you for your assistance!

The latest Severe Weather Briefing from the National Weather Service in Little Rock

• [WHAT] Severe weather and heavy rainfall. ○ Very large hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. ○ Extremely heavy rainfall, more than 10 inches possible. Flash flooding and river flooding likely

• [WHEN] Late Tuesday night through Saturday night. ○ Severe weather threat timeframes: ■ (1) Tuesday night into Wednesday morning (mainly across the far northwest corner) ■ (2) Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night (entire state) ■ (3) Thursday afternoon through Thursday night (all but NW Arkansas) ○ Heavy rainfall and resulting flash/river flooding threat Wednesday through Saturday.

• [WHERE] Most of the state will be at risk for severe weather and heavy rainfall

Severe weather late Tuesday night for Arkansas; heavy rainfall and flash flooding through the remainder of the week

• [WHAT] Severe weather and heavy rainfall

• [WHEN] Late Tuesday night through Saturday night. ○ Severe weather threat late Tuesday night through Thursday. ○ Heavy rainfall and resulting flash/river flooding threat Wednesday through Saturday.

• [WHERE] Most of the state will be at risk for severe weather as well as the heavy rainfall.

Severe Weather Briefing from the National Weather Service

• A cold front will push through Arkansas beginning on Wednesday morning along the Arkansas/Missouri border in the north and traverse the state moving southward during the day. Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to be present along this cold front as it moves across the state from north to south.

• Re-development or rejuvenation of thunderstorm activity will be possible as the cold front moves across central and into southern Arkansas into the early afternoon hours on Wednesday.

• Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the primary concerns. The tornado threat is very low, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

Severe Weather Possible Wednesday and Thursday in Arkansas

• An active weather pattern will continue across the region through the weekend, with some threat for strong to severe thunderstorms forecast through the weekend.

• Chances for severe weather will be greatest across the southwest section of the state through tonight. The threat on Thursday will be less concentrated, but may be more focused for western sections. Chances for severe weather will be a tad lower on Friday…but return for Saturday and Sunday.

• The primary threats expected with the strongest storms will be large hail and damaging winds, with some tornadoes also possible. Very large hail over 2 inches in diameter and damaging winds over 70 mph could be seen across southwest sections of the state this Wednesday afternoon.

• Some areas of heavy rainfall could be seen by late this week. Additional rainfall amounts exceeding 1.5 inches could be seen through Memorial Day, especially across the south half of the state. Locally heavier amounts are possible. This may lead to some isolated flash flooding.

National Weather Service Hazardous Weather Briefing for Arkansas Tues-Thurs

Severe Threat for Arkansas Late This Afternoon and Tonight - (National Weather Service/Little Rock Graph)

• An active weather pattern will develop starting late this afternoon and evening as a cold front drops southeast towards Arkansas.

• Chances for severe weather will increase starting late this evening into the overnight hours across far northwest sections of Arkansas. This threat will spread further southeast for Wednesday, and continue for a large portion of the state on Thursday.

• The primary threats expected with the strongest storms through tonight will be large hail and damaging winds, with a brief tornado or two possible. Very large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats on Wednesday, with a few tornadoes also possible. Large hail and damaging winds will again be primary threats for Thursday.

• There is some uncertainty regarding the severe threat on Wednesday as timing of morning thunderstorms may create less instability for afternoon thunderstorm development.

• Some areas of heavy rainfall could be seen by late this week. Rainfall amounts exceeding 3 inches could be seen from late tonight through Friday morning. This may lead to some isolated flash flooding.

Severe weather likely in Arkansas beginning Wednesday evening; briefing updated

• Severe storms are expected to fire across Arkansas this afternoon into the overnight hours.

• Chances for severe weather will increase through the day as a storm system tracks from the southern Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley, and drags a cold front into Arkansas. Ahead of the front, well above average temperatures and humid conditions will create a very unstable environment.

• All modes of severe weather are in play this afternoon and overnight. Very large hail up to baseball size and wind gusts up to 80 mph are the main threats, with tornadoes also possible. Heavy downpours may lead to localized flash flooding as well.

• On Thursday, storms will be mostly south of Arkansas but could impact far southern portions of the state. Damaging winds and large hail would be the main hazards.

Minor updates have been made by the National Weather Service in Little Rock, AR.

They include the addition of NW Arkansas to the Tornado Outlook and Overnight Timing Graphics. 

Storms are expected to initially develop by early evening across northern and western Arkansas. These storms will be capable of all severe weather hazards. The storms will gradually shift eastward through the evening hours with the very large hail threat becoming slightly lower. The damaging wind and isolated tornado threat will persist. Activity should make it east of the Mississippi River by daybreak Thursday.

Severe Weather Briefing from the NWS in Little Rock

After activity comes to an end this morning, some additional thunderstorms could develop across central into southeast Arkansas this evening into tonight. But, the severe weather threat with this activity remains low.

The greatest risk of severe storms in Arkansas will be on Wednesday during the evening into the overnight hours.

Chances for severe weather will increase Wednesday as a storm system tracks from the southern Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley, and drags a cold front into Arkansas. Ahead of the front, well above average temperatures and humid conditions will create a very unstable environment.

All modes of severe weather are in play. Very large hail up to baseball size and wind gusts up to 80 mph are the main threats, with tornadoes also possible. Heavy downpours may lead to localized flash flooding as well.

Severe Weather Briefing from the National Weather Service in Little Rock

• A powerful storm system in the central Plains will drag a cold front towards Arkansas Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday.

• Ahead of the front, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop tracking across portions of central and northern Arkansas. Damaging straight-line winds and hail appear to be the primary concern associated with storms Tuesday afternoon.

• An additional round of severe weather will be possible Thursday across portions of the state. Once again damaging winds and hail will be the primary concern with this system.

Severe Weather Briefing Monday night into Tuesday for Arkansas

• After a quiet but breezy/warm weekend, a powerful storm system in the central Plains will drag a cold front toward Arkansas late Monday into late Tuesday night.

• Ahead of the front, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of Iowa and Nebraska to northern Texas Monday/Monday night. The focus for possible severe weather will shift eastward into Arkansas on Tuesday.

• Damaging straight-line winds appear the primary thunderstorm hazard across Arkansas, although large hail and a tornado or two will be possible with any supercells that manage to develop ahead of the main line of thunderstorms.

Severe Weather Briefing for Arkansas from the National Weather Service

Strong to severe thunderstorms are still expected to develop late this evening and continue into Monday night. The only real change to the forecast is the computer models continue to slow the progression of the system down.  

The northwest part of Arkansas continues to have the best chances of seeing severe weather with decreasing chances further to the southeast.

•  Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday evening and into early Tuesday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. The computer models continue their trend of late in slowing the system down.

• Some storms are expected to become strong to severe, especially over the northwest half of Arkansas. These locations will have the greatest overlap of severe thunderstorm ingredients Monday evening and into early Tuesday. While all severe weather hazards will be possible, large hail and damaging winds will be the primary concerns and isolated tornadoes will be possible.

• Large hail and damaging straight-line winds are possible across the rest of the state as well, but chances decrease toward the south and east as the storms are forecast to weaken.

• Southerly winds gusting upwards of 30 mph will be possible on Monday afternoon and evening.

Severe Weather Briefing from the National Weather Service

There will be a brief window for severe weather Monday afternoon and evening over the south and southeast parts of the state. While there will be a lot of wind energy with this system, instability is low which will keep the severe threat limited. 

Windy conditions are expected to develop before the actual system arrives and some parts of the state may see some locally heavy rain.

• We continue to monitor a strong cold front that will be moving across the state Monday into Monday evening. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph are expected with higher gusts possible outside of any thunderstorm activity.

• Strong gusty winds remain the primary threat with storms on Monday. While the tornado threat is minimal, it is not zero.

• The greatest overlap of severe thunderstorm ingredients will lie over southern and southeastern Arkansas Monday afternoon and evening. While there is a tremendous amount of wind energy with this system, instability is limited.

• Widespread rain is expected before the actual cold front arrives which will further decrease the chance of widespread severe weather.

• In addition to severe weather, localized heavy rainfall is possible, primarily over the western half of the state. Some localized flash flooding issues may arise as a result.

Severe Weather Briefing for Arkansas on Thursday from the National Weather Service

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in eastern Oklahoma this afternoon and move into Arkansas later this afternoon and early evening. These storms will be capable of all severe hazards through later tonight.

The main changes with this briefing include:

-- An expansion of the "Enhanced Risk" area towards northeastern Arkansas

-- The introduction of a 10% Tornado Risk Area over northwestern to northern central Arkansas

Large and damaging hail remains the primary threat with storms today, though all modes of severe weather will be possible today and tonight.

Click on the attached briefing below for more specific forecast information.

Weather Outlook for Arkansas on Thursday from the National Weather Service

A storm system will arrive from the Plains on Thursday and bring showers and thunderstorms to Arkansas Thursday into Thursday night.  

Heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and severe weather will be possible for portions of Arkansas beginning Thursday

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms could occur across the western two-thirds of Arkansas Thursday and Thursday night. The main concern will be large hail and damaging winds, however a tornado can not be ruled out. The environment will be most unstable (warm/moist) in the southwest part of the state, and that is where damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes are most favorable.

National Weather Service Severe Weather Briefing

A storm system arriving from the southern Plains will bring additional showers and thunderstorms to Arkansas today and tonight.

• Isolated to scattered severe storms could occur across the southern half to one-third of Arkansas today and tonight. The main concern will be large hail and damaging winds, however a tornado can not be ruled out. The environment will be most unstable (warm/moist) toward the Gulf Coast, and that is where damaging winds/a few tornadoes are most favorable.

• The forecast calls for an additional one-quarter of an inch to over one inch of rain across the state today and tonight. Locally heavier amounts are possible in the south and southeast portions of the state. Any flash flooding should be localized.

• Sub-freezing temperatures possible Sunday morning over portions of Arkansas.

Severe Weather Briefing from the National Weather Service

• Isolated severe storms could occur over western Arkansas today. Large hail would be the main concern.

• Isolated to scattered severe storms could occur across mainly the southern half of Arkansas on Friday. The main concerns will be large hail and damaging winds; however, a tornado or two can not be ruled out. The environment will be most unstable (warm/moist) toward the Gulf Coast, and that is where damaging winds and a few tornadoes are most favored.

• The forecast calls for one to two inches of rain across much of the state, with locally heavier amounts possible in the north. Any flash flooding should be localized.

More rounds of showers and thunderstorms for Arkansas into Friday; weather briefing from the National Weather Service in Little Rock

A front will be nearly stationary across southern Arkansas through at least Friday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will surround the front Wednesday and again Friday.

Storms that become severe will be capable of producing very large hail and damaging wind.

A new cold front will arrive from the Plains late Saturday into Sunday. Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms will likely accompany the front.

Late in the weekend and early next week, precipitation will become more spotty and it will heat up. Heat index values will likely exceed 100 degrees, mainly from Little Rock southward.

Severe weather expected in Arkansas Thursday and Friday

• A cold front will sweep across Arkansas Thursday and Friday.

• Showers and storms will develop along and ahead of the front, with potential for strong to severe storms to develop.

• The primary hazards with these storms will be large hail, damaging winds, with heavy rain and localized flash flooding.

• The timing of the development of storms on Thursday will begin early this afternoon across west/northwest AR, with storms continuing to develop along and ahead of the front as it advances east/southeast through early Friday. Rainfall looks to persist through Friday evening across central, south, and eastern portions of the state.

Lookout Arkansas! Another round of severe storms on the way for late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning

The potential for widespread severe weather across much of the state remains for later this evening and into the overnight hours. All severe weather hazards will be possible, including damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. 

• Thunderstorms are expected to develop and move across the state from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning.

• Damaging winds, tornadoes and large hail will be possible as storms move across the state.

• Initial storm development may occur across western Arkansas. These storms are expected to be isolated and capable of producing large hail and tornadoes as they move to the northeast.

• By late Tuesday/early Wednesday morning, storms are expected to merge into a line and march east across the state. The main severe weather hazards with the line of storms will be damaging winds and QLCS-type tornadoes.

• Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, but should not be very widespread. The highest amounts are expected across far southern Arkansas.