An active weather pattern will continue across the region through the weekend, with some threat for strong to severe thunderstorms forecast through the weekend.
Chances for severe weather will be greatest across the southwest section of the state through tonight. The threat on Thursday will be less concentrated, but may be more focused for western sections. Chances for severe weather will be a tad lower on Friday…but return for Saturday and Sunday.
The primary threats expected with the strongest storms will be large hail and damaging winds, with some tornadoes also possible. Very large hail over 2 inches in diameter and damaging winds over 70 mph could be seen across southwest sections of the state this Wednesday afternoon.
Some areas of heavy rainfall could be seen by late this week. Additional rainfall amounts exceeding 1.5 inches could be seen through Memorial Day, especially across the south half of the state. Locally heavier amounts are possible. This may lead to some isolated flash flooding.
National Weather Service Hazardous Weather Briefing for Arkansas Tues-Thurs
Severe Threat for Arkansas Late This Afternoon and Tonight - (National Weather Service/Little Rock Graph)
An active weather pattern will develop starting late this afternoon and evening as a cold front drops southeast towards Arkansas.
Chances for severe weather will increase starting late this evening into the overnight hours across far northwest sections of Arkansas. This threat will spread further southeast for Wednesday, and continue for a large portion of the state on Thursday.
The primary threats expected with the strongest storms through tonight will be large hail and damaging winds, with a brief tornado or two possible. Very large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats on Wednesday, with a few tornadoes also possible. Large hail and damaging winds will again be primary threats for Thursday.
There is some uncertainty regarding the severe threat on Wednesday as timing of morning thunderstorms may create less instability for afternoon thunderstorm development.
Some areas of heavy rainfall could be seen by late this week. Rainfall amounts exceeding 3 inches could be seen from late tonight through Friday morning. This may lead to some isolated flash flooding.
National Weather Service Severe Weather Briefing
A cold front will push through Arkansas from the Plains on Thursday. Ahead of the front, very warm conditions/well above normal temperatures will exist, creating a very unstable environment.
A broken line of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the northwest counties Thursday afternoon. The line is then expected to move towards central and northeastern locations Thursday evening and night. There are indications the line will gradually weaken after the sun sets, and daytime heating is lost.
Large hail and damaging winds are the primary concerns, especially across northern and extreme western parts of the state. A low, but non-zero tornado chances exists across the northeastern half of the state.
Severe Weather Briefing from the National Weather Service
An unsettled weather pattern will continue today/tonight. Showers and scattered thunderstorms remain in the forecast, and areas of heavy rain are expected.
The forecast calls for an additional half inch to more than two inches of rain across Arkansas. Spotty flash flooding is possible, and some minor river flooding is likely to occur or is ongoing.
While the primary concern will be heavy rain, there could be isolated severe storms across southern Arkansas. More significant severe weather is likely farther south along the Gulf Coast (from Louisiana into Mississippi and Alabama).
Severe Weather Briefing for Arkansas from the National Weather Service
Strong to severe thunderstorms are still expected to develop late this evening and continue into Monday night. The only real change to the forecast is the computer models continue to slow the progression of the system down.
The northwest part of Arkansas continues to have the best chances of seeing severe weather with decreasing chances further to the southeast.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday evening and into early Tuesday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. The computer models continue their trend of late in slowing the system down.
Some storms are expected to become strong to severe, especially over the northwest half of Arkansas. These locations will have the greatest overlap of severe thunderstorm ingredients Monday evening and into early Tuesday. While all severe weather hazards will be possible, large hail and damaging winds will be the primary concerns and isolated tornadoes will be possible.
Large hail and damaging straight-line winds are possible across the rest of the state as well, but chances decrease toward the south and east as the storms are forecast to weaken.
Southerly winds gusting upwards of 30 mph will be possible on Monday afternoon and evening.
Severe storms are possible for the upcoming weekend according to the National Weather Service
A strong cold front will surge through Arkansas from the Plains on Saturday. The front will trigger showers and thunderstorms.
There is a risk of severe thunderstorms on Saturday as the front plows into an unseasonably mild (springlike) and unstable environment across the state. Data currently indicates all modes of severe weather (including tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail) will be possible.
Cooler and more seasonal air will follow the front Saturday night and Sunday. Residual moisture may yield a few snowflakes in the Ozark Mountains before precipitation ends Sunday afternoon.
The National Weather Service indicates additional severe weather expected for Arkansas Tuesday and Wednesday
Rain and thunderstorms that moved across the state overnight have pushed east of the area. Rainfall amounts across southern Arkansas were generally in the 1-2 inch range. Amounts decrease as you go north.
Mostly dry conditions are expected across the state today, southerly winds could be gusty at times. Very warm temperatures are expected today and Tuesday, highs could approach 90° in some areas both days.
There will be an opportunity for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop and move across the state from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. All severe weather hazards appear possible, an enhanced risk of severe weather remains in place. The threat for severe weather should wrap up before noon Wednesday as a cold front moves east of the area.
Locally heavy rain is possible Tuesday and Wednesday, the highest amounts are expected across far southern Arkansas.
Severe weather risk for the ArkLaTex Friday
Showers and thunderstorms this morning will decrease in coverage before redevelopment later this afternoon. A squall line is then expected to sweep across the state.with the possibility of strong tornadoes with the best chances over the southeast.
In addition to the severe threat, flooding is a concern. Several inches of rain fell across parts of northwest Arkansas last night with additional widespread rain expected. The precipitation is expected to exit the state late this evening.
Severe weather risk for Arkansas Thursday and Friday
A strong storm system is expected to bring showers and thunderstorms to the state Thursday through Friday night. Some of these storms could become strong to severe. In addition to the threat for severe weather, there is also a threat for flooding due to the expected heavy rainfall. Please see the attached briefing for more details.
There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorm late on Thursday into early Friday, along and mainly north of our I-30 corridor. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats and locally heavy rainfall could bring isolated flash flooding.
Locally heavy rainfall from a line of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms, could result in isolated flash flooding late Thursday into early Friday with the Slight Risk north of our I-30 corridor.
There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorm late on Thursday into early Friday, along and mainly north of our I-30 corridor. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats and locally heavy rainfall could bring isolated flash flooding.
Locally heavy rainfall from a line of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms, could result in isolated flash flooding late Thursday into early Friday with the Slight Risk north of our I-30 corridor.
A line of strong to severe storms will continue across the area during early Friday with afternoon heating firing up a Slight Risk for severe storms in deep E TX, all of our Parishes and south central AR during the afternoon. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats and locally heavy rainfall could bring isolated flash flooding.
Severe Weather Briefing for Arkansas on Thursday; Freeze watch also in effect for the weekend
A round of showers and thunderstorms will move across the state later today into tonight and some of these storms could become strong to severe. Damaging winds will be the primary hazard.
Showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase late this morning in Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas, and even Northwest Louisiana by early this afternoon. All of this well ahead of a strong cold front and associated upper level disturbance that will approach the region from the west tonight. An isolated severe threat exists with these afternoon storms with large hail possible, but the majority of our severe weather threat will hold off until late this afternoon as the warm front comes into play. Then the thunderstorms gradually become more surface based moving eastward and better organize ahead of the strong cold front as it moves across I-30 this evening. The thunderstorms will merge into a potent squall line, while moving southeastward ahead of the cold front this evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes are the main threats late this afternoon and on through much of Thursday night, before diminishing in the predawn hours. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible with 2 inches or more in the stronger storms, which may result in minor flooding of our low lying and poor drainage areas.
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SW ARKANSAS AND SE OKLAHOMA FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 32 possible.
* WHERE...In Arkansas, Sevier County, Howard County, Little
River County, Hempstead County and Nevada County. In Oklahoma,
McCurtain County.
* WHEN...From late Friday night through Saturday morning.
* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other
sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor
plumbing.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.
Weekend's Severe Weather Briefing for Arkansas
A new storm system moves into the region on Saturday, followed by a cold front that will move through the state during the afternoon/evening timeframe. During this period, we expect another round of unsettled weather, with a few strong or severe storms possible. The main hazards look to be hail and damaging winds.
It’s important to remember that additional updates will be provided as we get closer to Saturday, and specifics will become ironed out further.
Attached is a severe weather briefing concerning the rainfall totals that are expected through the day on Sunday as well as the possibility of severe weather on Saturday.
Severe Weather to affect Arkansas Wednesday and Thursday
An active weather pattern is underway with the first round of severe weather expected this afternoon through tonight. An additional round of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon through the early morning hours on Friday. Severe weather types include damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes.
The threat for flash flooding will increase across the central and northern portions of the state over the next few days.
Please see the attached briefing for more details.
National Weather Service in Little Rock, AR
Severe weather possible in Arkansas on Wednesday
A few strong to severe storms are possible from Wednesday into Wednesday night, especially across eastern, southern, and southeastern Arkansas.
Weather Briefing from the National Weather Service in Little Rock
Confidence continues to increase on a severe weather event for most of the southeastern half of the state beginning Tuesday afternoon/evening and potentially persisting into the early morning hours of Wednesday.
The Day 3 Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook brought an expansion of the Enhanced Risk area into much of eastern and northeastern Arkansas. Specific timing details will become more evident in the next day or so, however additional changes to the forecast risk area are still possible within the next few days.
Increased Threat of Severe Weather Friday Evening in Arkansas
A fairly major update has been made to the severe weather forecast through tonight. Here are the main points:
Moderate Risk introduced for all of western, southwestern AR
- Increased threat for tornadoes, some potentially significant, in and near southwest
AR. Damaging hail is also possible.
- Intense winds (up to 70-80 mph) possible as storms move across AR late evening
and overnight
Enhanced Risk expanded to include the southern half of AR.
Onset timing remains the same (5-7 PM), but storms will move across AR faster than previously thought with storms moving east of the MS River by 3-4 AM.
The attached briefing contains updated graphics pertaining to the severe threat and timing.
Potential for Damaging Winds, Storms, Heavy Rainfall, and Possible Tornadoes for Friday
A storm system will approach the Natural State on Friday afternoon and complete its progression across the state by early Saturday morning. Click on the link above for a briefing outlining this event.
More storms and heavy rainfall on the way for Arkansas followed by hot and humid conditions next week
From the National Weather Service In Little Rock:
--Another complex of strong to severe storms is expected to move through the forecast area as soon as the early morning hours on Friday, extending into the daytime on Friday. The main hazards of this storm system would be damaging winds and large hail.
--Where storms move over the same locations repeatedly, the risk for flash flooding will increase given wet antecedent conditions of late. Additional heavy rainfall over swollen smaller tributaries will keep local river levels elevated as well.
--Heading into next week, hot, humid, and oppressive conditions are expected to ensue, with hazardous heat index values possible as early as Monday.
As always, tune into your local National Weather Service forecast offices for the latest updates.
Click on the pic below for the latest weather brief from the NWS.
Severe Weather Briefing for Arkansas from the National Weather Service in Little Rock
[TODAY] A strong storm system will be approaching the region through today, providing the next widespread thunderstorm chances on Thursday. In between now and then, a stalled boundary draped across the state will remain the focus for intermittent showers and thunderstorms today.
[THURSDAY] Our next main concern for organized severe weather will set up on Thursday as a cold front moves across the state from west to east. All severe hazards will be possible including damaging winds, some hail, and a few tornadoes.
[ADDITIONAL HAZARDS] Heavy to excessive rainfall and local flash flooding will remain a concern today and Thursday, given multiple rounds of precipitation have led to widespread saturated regions.
Please click on the pic below to see the attached briefing for more information.
Tornadoes caused minor damage, power outages and brought large hail to Arkansas
KUAR | By Michael Hibblen, Remington Miller
Crews from the National Weather Service are assessing damage after several isolated tornados and severe thunderstorms hit Arkansas on Monday night.
Tornadoes were reported in the communities of Barling, Charleston and Scranton. Another was in Faulkner County near Mayflower which was blamed for bringing down trees, causing scattered power outages.
John Lewis, a senior forecaster with the National Weather Service in Little Rock office, said damage was minimal. Much of the damage was caused by large hail.
@Countrymonksbr1/Twitter
Swirling storm clouds on Monday evening moved over Subiaco Abbey, a Benedictine monastery in Logan County.
Severe Weather Possible Across Arkansas Overnight Thursday into Friday Morning
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas. .
Today and Tonight... By tonight, locally heavy rainfall from widespread showers and thunderstorms can produce isolated flash flooding, especially along the U.S. Highway 82 corridor in northeast Texas and southwest Arkansas. .
Friday through Wednesday... Showers and thunderstorms will return across the region Thursday night and into Friday morning. This activity will be associated with a squall line, and some of these storms can be strong to severe, particularly north of I-20. Damaging winds will be the primary threat with this activity.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio operators...and storm spotters may be needed for Thursday night. Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.