Showers, thunderstorms, severe storms, and heavy rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday in Arkansas

At least a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected across Arkansas over the next few days. This could provide severe weather and flash flooding to parts of the state. 

National Weather Service in Little Rock Morning Crew

TUESDAY

Storm timing: Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night
Areas impacted: Northern half of Arkansas
Main hazards: Damaging winds up to 60 mph, large hail up to 1.00” (≥10% of significant hail of ≥2” within the hatched area), and a tornado or two is possible over mainly northern half of Arkansas

WEDNESDAY

Storm timing: Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night
Areas impacted: Much of Arkansas, especially the western half of the state
Main hazards: Damaging winds up to 60 mph and a few tornadoes are possible
Secondary hazards: Large hail up to 1.00”

An updated briefing with the latest information is attached below. 

Severe weather late Tuesday night for Arkansas; heavy rainfall and flash flooding through the remainder of the week

• [WHAT] Severe weather and heavy rainfall

• [WHEN] Late Tuesday night through Saturday night. ○ Severe weather threat late Tuesday night through Thursday. ○ Heavy rainfall and resulting flash/river flooding threat Wednesday through Saturday.

• [WHERE] Most of the state will be at risk for severe weather as well as the heavy rainfall.

Strong to severe thunderstorms possible in Arkansas this weekend

• The chances of strong to severe thunderstorms remain Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

• Multiple medium to long range models continue to show agreement in the possibility of severe weather, with the greatest confidence across the central and eastern sections of Arkansas.

• However, it should be noted that this possible severe weather event is still several days out and changes to the forecast are likely heading into the weekend.

• Monitor the latest briefings regarding the expected timing, severe weather impacts, along with the general location(s) potentially affected.

Severe Weather for Arkansas possible on Tuesday

Ahead of a powerful storm system (“L”) in the southern Plains, there will be a lot of shear/turning with height (to promote tornadoes), with a southerly 50 to 70 knot jet at 850 millibars (5,000 feet) and a southwest 70 to 100+ knot jet at 500 millibars (18,000 feet).

• [WHAT] Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms could impact the state early next week.

• [WHEN] Tuesday, March 4th.

• [WHERE] Across much of Arkansas, but especially the eastern half of the state.

  [ADDITIONAL INFO]

• A strong storm system and cold front are expected to approach by early next week.

• The system will try to bring warm, moist, and unstable air into the region from the Gulf Coast.

• If the environment destabilizes enough, severe weather (including tornadoes) will become likely.

  [WHAT HAS CHANGED]

• It appears an early arrival of precipitation (Tuesday morning) may keep the atmosphere from becoming overly unstable. If rain arrives later, or progresses more slowly to the east, then destabilization will occur. This is very concerning given that available shear will be impressive (to promote tornadoes).

• Continue to monitor the latest briefings as we assess trends in medium to short-term model data.

Weather Briefing for Arkansas from the National Weather Service

The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur across the southeast half of the state. Rainfall totals may lead to continued or new river flooding, along with flash flooding, especially across southeast Arkansas

• A final round of light freezing rain is possible this morning across portions of north-central to northwest Arkansas. Some locations have also seen a transition to snow/sleet.

• Locations that see sleet or snow could see impacts to roadways this morning, especially bridges/overpasses.

• This precipitation is expected to come to an end by early afternoon.

• Across the rest of the state, widespread rain is expected and could be heavy at times.

• There is a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms across the southern half of Arkansas on Saturday.

Heavy rain and severe weather possibilities for Arkansas this week

• A strong storm system will approach the state from the southwest in the coming days.

• Rain will become widespread from west to east across the area Wednesday evening through Thursday

• As the system moves through, heavy rainfall is possible from southeast Oklahoma across portions of western and northern Arkansas.

• Additionally, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across mainly southern Arkansas Thursday afternoon and evening.

• The threat for hazardous weather is expected to come to an end by Friday morning as the storm system moves east of the state.

National Weather Service Hazardous Weather Briefing

A line of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms is expected to move into western Arkansas Monday night ahead of an advancing cold front. Some of these storms could produce damaging wind gusts, and perhaps an isolated tornado.

Heavy rainfall has already fallen across a good portion of central, western, and northern Arkansas over the last 24-hours. Additional heavy rainfall and severe weather will be possible through Tuesday (election day). Here is an in-depth briefing explaining expected weather conditions through Wednesday morning.

• Widespread rain fell yesterday and overnight leading to flooding across portions of northern Arkansas.

• Additional rainfall is expected today and into Tuesday as a cold front begins to push towards the state.

• An additional one to three inches will be possible through Tuesday

Severe Weather Briefing from the National Weather Service

• A cold front will push through Arkansas beginning on Wednesday morning along the Arkansas/Missouri border in the north and traverse the state moving southward during the day. Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to be present along this cold front as it moves across the state from north to south.

• Re-development or rejuvenation of thunderstorm activity will be possible as the cold front moves across central and into southern Arkansas into the early afternoon hours on Wednesday.

• Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the primary concerns. The tornado threat is very low, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

NWS Severe Weather Outlook for Arkansas June 3, 2024

• A complex of strong to severe thunderstorms will develop along a line that will enter northwestern Arkansas by Monday afternoon and sweep southeastward across the state into Monday evening.

• Damaging wind gusts and quarter sized hail will be possible in any storm that becomes severe.

• The tornado threat in this environment remains very low, but not zero.

• The Flash Flooding threat with this system is low, but locations that saw high rainfall totals with the activity from Thursday and locations that experience efficient rainfall producing cells this afternoon/evening may see flash flooding, especially in prone areas.

Severe Weather Possible Wednesday and Thursday in Arkansas

• An active weather pattern will continue across the region through the weekend, with some threat for strong to severe thunderstorms forecast through the weekend.

• Chances for severe weather will be greatest across the southwest section of the state through tonight. The threat on Thursday will be less concentrated, but may be more focused for western sections. Chances for severe weather will be a tad lower on Friday…but return for Saturday and Sunday.

• The primary threats expected with the strongest storms will be large hail and damaging winds, with some tornadoes also possible. Very large hail over 2 inches in diameter and damaging winds over 70 mph could be seen across southwest sections of the state this Wednesday afternoon.

• Some areas of heavy rainfall could be seen by late this week. Additional rainfall amounts exceeding 1.5 inches could be seen through Memorial Day, especially across the south half of the state. Locally heavier amounts are possible. This may lead to some isolated flash flooding.

National Weather Service Hazardous Weather Briefing for Arkansas Tues-Thurs

Severe Threat for Arkansas Late This Afternoon and Tonight - (National Weather Service/Little Rock Graph)

• An active weather pattern will develop starting late this afternoon and evening as a cold front drops southeast towards Arkansas.

• Chances for severe weather will increase starting late this evening into the overnight hours across far northwest sections of Arkansas. This threat will spread further southeast for Wednesday, and continue for a large portion of the state on Thursday.

• The primary threats expected with the strongest storms through tonight will be large hail and damaging winds, with a brief tornado or two possible. Very large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats on Wednesday, with a few tornadoes also possible. Large hail and damaging winds will again be primary threats for Thursday.

• There is some uncertainty regarding the severe threat on Wednesday as timing of morning thunderstorms may create less instability for afternoon thunderstorm development.

• Some areas of heavy rainfall could be seen by late this week. Rainfall amounts exceeding 3 inches could be seen from late tonight through Friday morning. This may lead to some isolated flash flooding.

Severe weather likely in Arkansas beginning Wednesday evening; briefing updated

• Severe storms are expected to fire across Arkansas this afternoon into the overnight hours.

• Chances for severe weather will increase through the day as a storm system tracks from the southern Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley, and drags a cold front into Arkansas. Ahead of the front, well above average temperatures and humid conditions will create a very unstable environment.

• All modes of severe weather are in play this afternoon and overnight. Very large hail up to baseball size and wind gusts up to 80 mph are the main threats, with tornadoes also possible. Heavy downpours may lead to localized flash flooding as well.

• On Thursday, storms will be mostly south of Arkansas but could impact far southern portions of the state. Damaging winds and large hail would be the main hazards.

Minor updates have been made by the National Weather Service in Little Rock, AR.

They include the addition of NW Arkansas to the Tornado Outlook and Overnight Timing Graphics. 

Storms are expected to initially develop by early evening across northern and western Arkansas. These storms will be capable of all severe weather hazards. The storms will gradually shift eastward through the evening hours with the very large hail threat becoming slightly lower. The damaging wind and isolated tornado threat will persist. Activity should make it east of the Mississippi River by daybreak Thursday.

Severe Weather Briefing from the NWS in Little Rock

After activity comes to an end this morning, some additional thunderstorms could develop across central into southeast Arkansas this evening into tonight. But, the severe weather threat with this activity remains low.

The greatest risk of severe storms in Arkansas will be on Wednesday during the evening into the overnight hours.

Chances for severe weather will increase Wednesday as a storm system tracks from the southern Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley, and drags a cold front into Arkansas. Ahead of the front, well above average temperatures and humid conditions will create a very unstable environment.

All modes of severe weather are in play. Very large hail up to baseball size and wind gusts up to 80 mph are the main threats, with tornadoes also possible. Heavy downpours may lead to localized flash flooding as well.

Severe Weather Briefing for Arkansas from the National Weather Service in Little Rock

• There is a potential for severe weather today through Wednesday. The greatest risk of severe storms in Arkansas will be on Wednesday.

• In the near term, an outbreak of severe weather is expected in the Plains today. A line of strong/severe storms will approach northwest Arkansas tonight, but should weaken as it progresses into the state during the predawn hours Tuesday. Additional isolated to scattered thunderstorms will pop up Tuesday afternoon, but any severe weather will be spotty.

• Chances for severe weather will increase Wednesday as a storm system tracks from the southern Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley, and drags a cold front into Arkansas. Ahead of the front, well above average temperatures and humid conditions will create a very unstable environment. All modes of severe weather are in play, including tornadoes. Heavy downpours may lead to localized flash flooding.

Severe Weather Briefing from the NWS Little Rock

• A northward lifting warm front on Friday, in tandem with an approaching dryline from the west in eastern Oklahoma, will initiate an opportunity for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop and move into Arkansas.

• All modes of severe weather will be possible from large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes.

• Excessive rainfall will also accompany this system which will present the risk for flash flooding, especially in vulnerable locations for flash flooding as early as Thursday through Friday night.

National Weather Service Severe Weather Briefing

A cold front will push through Arkansas from the Plains on Thursday. Ahead of the front, very warm conditions/well above normal temperatures will exist, creating a very unstable environment.

A broken line of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the northwest counties Thursday afternoon. The line is then expected to move towards central and northeastern locations Thursday evening and night. There are indications the line will gradually weaken after the sun sets, and daytime heating is lost.

Large hail and damaging winds are the primary concerns, especially across northern and extreme western parts of the state. A low, but non-zero tornado chances exists across the northeastern half of the state.

Severe Weather Briefing from the National Weather Service in Little Rock

• A powerful storm system in the central Plains will drag a cold front towards Arkansas Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday.

• Ahead of the front, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop tracking across portions of central and northern Arkansas. Damaging straight-line winds and hail appear to be the primary concern associated with storms Tuesday afternoon.

• An additional round of severe weather will be possible Thursday across portions of the state. Once again damaging winds and hail will be the primary concern with this system.

Severe Weather Briefing Monday night into Tuesday for Arkansas

• After a quiet but breezy/warm weekend, a powerful storm system in the central Plains will drag a cold front toward Arkansas late Monday into late Tuesday night.

• Ahead of the front, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of Iowa and Nebraska to northern Texas Monday/Monday night. The focus for possible severe weather will shift eastward into Arkansas on Tuesday.

• Damaging straight-line winds appear the primary thunderstorm hazard across Arkansas, although large hail and a tornado or two will be possible with any supercells that manage to develop ahead of the main line of thunderstorms.

Severe Weather Briefing for Arkansas from the National Weather Service

Strong to severe thunderstorms are still expected to develop late this evening and continue into Monday night. The only real change to the forecast is the computer models continue to slow the progression of the system down.  

The northwest part of Arkansas continues to have the best chances of seeing severe weather with decreasing chances further to the southeast.

•  Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday evening and into early Tuesday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. The computer models continue their trend of late in slowing the system down.

• Some storms are expected to become strong to severe, especially over the northwest half of Arkansas. These locations will have the greatest overlap of severe thunderstorm ingredients Monday evening and into early Tuesday. While all severe weather hazards will be possible, large hail and damaging winds will be the primary concerns and isolated tornadoes will be possible.

• Large hail and damaging straight-line winds are possible across the rest of the state as well, but chances decrease toward the south and east as the storms are forecast to weaken.

• Southerly winds gusting upwards of 30 mph will be possible on Monday afternoon and evening.

Severe Weather Briefing from the National Weather Service

There will be a brief window for severe weather Monday afternoon and evening over the south and southeast parts of the state. While there will be a lot of wind energy with this system, instability is low which will keep the severe threat limited. 

Windy conditions are expected to develop before the actual system arrives and some parts of the state may see some locally heavy rain.

• We continue to monitor a strong cold front that will be moving across the state Monday into Monday evening. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph are expected with higher gusts possible outside of any thunderstorm activity.

• Strong gusty winds remain the primary threat with storms on Monday. While the tornado threat is minimal, it is not zero.

• The greatest overlap of severe thunderstorm ingredients will lie over southern and southeastern Arkansas Monday afternoon and evening. While there is a tremendous amount of wind energy with this system, instability is limited.

• Widespread rain is expected before the actual cold front arrives which will further decrease the chance of widespread severe weather.

• In addition to severe weather, localized heavy rainfall is possible, primarily over the western half of the state. Some localized flash flooding issues may arise as a result.