An active pattern is expected later this week, especially Friday and Saturday. A storm system will arrive from the southern Plains, and will likely trigger areas of heavy to excessive rain and severe storms.

As of this morning, it appears two to more than five inches of rain could fall across Arkansas. The heaviest rain is expected from west central through central into northeast sections of the state (from Mena through Clinton and Little Rock and on toward Jonesboro and Corning). Severe weather (tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail) is favored over southwest sections of the state.

The storm track will be very important, and will determine where the heaviest rain falls, and how much severe weather materializes. A more northerly track will skew the heaviest rain to the north, with more of the state affected by severe storms. A track to the south will move the heaviest rain to the south, will mean less severe weather, and could result in light wintry precipitation in northern and western Arkansas as colder air arrives Saturday.

It will also be windy surrounding the system. Breezy southerly winds will kick up on Thursday and Friday, and will shift to the northwest and remain gusty on Saturday.

This is looking more and more like a significant event. Now is the time to prepare.

The Midnight Crew
National Weather Service
Little Rock, Arkansas